Party On, Charlie?

Later this year Charlie Crist’s “tell-all” book, “The Party’s Over: How the Extreme Right Hijacked the GOP and I Became a Democrat,” will be out. According to advance publicity, the book will “name names and offer a frank indictment of the failings of the Republican Party.” It also promises to be a “no-holds-barred memoir of his journey from Republican to Democrat.”

No PR mention, however, is made of how “The Party’s Over” handles the existential issue that could still cost Crist the most in a gubernatorial run against incumbent Rick Scott. How political ambition led him to abandon Tallahassee when Floridians needed him the most. Without that ill-fated, career-first move, there would be no Gov. Scott. That will be a formidable obstacle in the critically important, get-out-the-Democratic-vote effort.

Rubio’s Strategy: Viable or Untenable?

It’s becoming increasingly fashionable to write off Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential ambitions because he screwed up with immigration.

Conventional wisdom says any compromise with Senate Democrats that offers illegals an earned path to citizenship–no matter how long it would take or how circuitous the route–is still a betrayal to the GOP’s conservative base. Surely, no candidate can survive the primaries without the support of the truest true believers–although Mitt Romney did manage to muddle through last year.

Conventional wisdom, we are reminded, is often more conventional than wise.

Frankly, I think Rubio has factored in all this 2013 blowback, maybe even the nasty name-calling by the bilious likes of Glenn Beck, who’s always on pander auto-pilot. I don’t think Rubio’s been blindsided. I think he sees the controversy he’s necessarily swept up in as a short-term price to pay in a longer-term strategy that could yield the look of broader appeal and electability.

Let’s put immigration aside for a second, but we’ll come back to it.

Rubio has been a vocal critic of President Obama over the budget deficit, health care and Medicaid money for his own state. He remains a favorite son of the National Rifle Association, and he can still rant on Benghazi and the Administration’s seemingly ad hoc foreign policy.

Rubio is also a fund-raising magnet–with his own Reclaim America PAC–and a prime-time, after-dinner speaker. It’s an extension of his role as designated Republican respondee to President Obama’s State of the Union address, which was preceded by the royal treatment he received at the 2012 GOP Convention. It’s also a concession to the reality that he is youthful, telegenic, articulate, charismatic and Hispanic–in a demographically-challenged, minority-affronting party that can’t beat Hillary Clinton with Rand Paul.

None of that has changed, “gang of eight” affiliation notwithstanding. In fact, it’s further evidenced by his role as keynote speaker next month at the high-profile Americans for Prosperity Foundation conference. That’s the political offspring of highly influential Charles and David Koch, the libertarian billionaires. The Brothers Koch haven’t moved their big bash from Washington to Orlando only to have it keynoted by an imploding politician who is yesterday’s news.

What Rubio is hoping is that his immigration stand will be analyzed two ways. First, that it will be viewed in the context of his litmus-test positions on other conservative issues. Second, that it will be scrutinized through something other than the zero-sum filter of the shrillest Tea Partiers.

Only uber partisans would label as “amnesty” the immigration bill passed (68-32) in the Senate that
offers a 13-year path to citizenship to upwards of 11 million immigrants currently living among us unlawfully. But the legislation, which also requires the completion of 700 miles of fencing, deployment of high-tech surveillance devices along the U.S.-Mexico border and the hiring of 20,000 more Border Patrol guards, has, for sure, no chance in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. “Amnesty” is like abortion or welfare to the knee-jerk GOPster fringe.

But polls show most Americans don’t consider a 13-year path with qualifiers as “amnesty,” and “most” Americans outnumber Glenn Beck and strident Tea Partiers. Suffice it to say, “most” Americans will elect the next president.

In reality, the maintenance of immigration status quo is a form of de facto amnesty. Look for Rubio–and key surrogates–to be pointing that out down the primary road. It will also be noted that he fought the good fight to help bring Americans of all hues and ethnicities together, a theme that will have to become part of the Republican 2016 mantra. And it will have to be part of the primary dynamic. He’s still uniquely qualified to bring that off.

Ironically, immigration likely won’t determine Rubio’s presidential trajectory. Party faithful and Rubistas too easily overlook other issues.

For example, Rubio’s roots can be problematic among Hispanics. As a Cuban-American, Rubio has to tap dance around the “wet-foot, dry-foot” double standard on immigration that uniquely benefits Cubans. Mexicans, Central Americans, Caribbean Islanders and others have to get in line or sneak in. It doesn’t play well in those communities. And Rubio isn’t helped outside Little Havana by his continued support of America’s controversial Cuban policy–trade embargo and restricted travel–that is increasingly seen as counterproductive from humanitarian, economic and geopolitical perspectives. He also opposed the DREAM Act and supports English as the official language of the U.S. He didn’t vote for Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

Then there’s that party credit card flap, his self-serving, revisionist bio that pandered to hard-line, anti-Castro exiles, his suck-up signature on Grover Norquist’s no-tax/no way pledge, his thumbs down on the “fiscal cliff” budget compromise, his rhetorical weaseling on creationism and his votes against the Violence Against Women Act and the United Nations’ treaty banning discrimination against people with disabilities. And more. Vetting might seem more like hazing.

No, Marco Rubio may not be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in 2016, but it won’t be because he joined a bipartisan Senate effort to forge a compromise alternative to the current immigration mess.

Lt. Gov. Update

There’s been Democratic criticism of Gov. Rick Scott for not moving on the naming of a lieutenant governor replacement. It’s been four months since Jennifer Carroll had to summarily resign. There’s also been criticism aimed at the partisan critics. As in what’s the hurry and who cares who’s appointed to a worthless job?

But there’s also this: Imagine if the governor, an unpopular ideologue who’s been gradually   improving his abysmal poll numbers, decides to do something with this position–other than use it as a transparently cynical pander pitch? Maybe upgrade it and hand that person–not necessarily a token female of color again–a serious portfolio or two. Stranger things have been done by unpopular pols, even deep-pocketed ones–looking for game changers.

Tampa And Miami: Different Cuba Lenses

When it comes to Cuba, Miami and Tampa are generally poles–or embargo perspectives–apart. Miami has next-generation exiles, Tampa has descendents of tobacco workers. Miami has a vendetta agenda, Tampa envisions unfettered trade and travel scenarios. Miami has Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Tampa has Kathy Castor.

But as sure as the Castro brothers’ days are numbered, change is inevitable. It’s more than negotiations about resuming direct mail service and an agreement to resume bilateral talks on migration issues. And at some point the Alan Gross/”Cuban Four” intelligence-agents standoff will be seen as the low-hanging, geopolitical fruit that it is.

But for now, the two markets eye each other warily. That was reflected recently in a lengthy Miami Herald piece (by Eric Barton of the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting). It took a close look at the 5-day, 37-person delegation of Tampa business leaders and political officials that traveled to Cuba last month and noted “there was no mistaking that the trip was about promoting Tampa as Cuba’s future trading partner.” Tampa politicians, added Barton, “talk of expanding direct flights to Havana. They want to be home to cruise ships that call to Cuban cities. And they imagine the port of Tampa becoming the main hub of goods heading to the island once the embargo is lifted.”

There was no mistaking the theme: Tampa business and political leaders want to exploit Miami’s ideologically counterproductive approach to Cuba. Little Havana has noticed–but is unmoved.

Among those quoted: City Council member Mary Mulhern, who publicly opposes the economic embargo and has been to Cuba three times, and Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Bob Rohrlack. His unequivocal response to a query about whether Tampa is positioning itself for advantageous, post-embargo opportunities in Cuba: “Hands down. Absolutely.”

Rohrlack also could have added–but why rub it in–“Thanks again, Miami. Stay the course.”

Poly Folly Scholarship Strategy

As we saw recently, Florida Polytechnic University has a plan to transcend its challenges and jump-start its credibility in time for its first class of undergraduates in 2014. Those challenges–a by-product of instant, contentious autonomy granted in the 2012 Legislative session–are familiar enough: no history, no facilities, no accreditation, virtually no faculty, no student housing and no federal financial aid.

But construction is underway and a recruiting strategy is ready for implementation: All 500 undergraduate students arriving next year will get in free. The cost–in-state tuition is $5,000–will be covered via fund-raising by the school’s new foundation.

“It’s a recruiting tool,” explained Ava Parker, the COO of the Lakeland paean to JD Alexander’s effrontery and legacy priority.  “We see scholarships as a way to recruit the best and brightest to our university.”

Two points.

The “best and brightest” aren’t going to “Poly Wanna Student Body.” They will leverage any meaningful definition of “best and brightest” into scholarships at accredited schools with all the traditional trappings of higher education.

Those who do sign on at Freebie U. will arrive despite the obvious caveat: You may very well get your no-money’s worth.

Our Laws, Our Times

While it was kind of anti-climatic and politically defused, nearly 200 legislative bills became Sunshine State law recently after Gov. Rick Scott had signed off.

For the record, nothing headline-grabbing had changed since the legislative session. But now it’s official, starting with the state’s budget–balanced out at $74.1 billion.

So, no, there was no under-the-radar compromise you missed on Medicaid–no matter what the Florida Chamber of Commerce, Associated Industries of Florida, the health care industry, the Florida Senate and a majority of voters thought. Where there’s a will, there’s a Won’t Weatherford. Nor was the ban on texting while driving upgraded from a secondary offense or accelerated  (effective Oct. 1) in implementation. And assault weapons are still good to go, “stand your ground” is still standing and owed internet-sales taxes are still uncollected. This is still Florida.

But among the new laws are three that are sobering societal commentary about our times, our values and, of course, our politics. It speaks volumes that a society actually needs to codify such things.

* First, it is now decreed that when a child is conceived during a sexual assault, there will be no paternal rights for the rapist. Obviously, that needed to be stipulated.

* Second, health providers will be required to provide emergency medical care to an infant who survives a failed abortion. Health care professionals must “humanely exercise the same degree of professional skill, care and diligence to preserve the life and health of the infant” as would be the case in a natural birth. Obviously, the Hippocratic Oath wasn’t enough.

* Third, Florida has made it more difficult for the mentally ill to buy firearms. Previously, Florida law prohibited those committed involuntarily under the Baker Act, which applies to people deemed a danger to themselves or others, from buying a gun. Now this prohibition also applies to those who voluntarily seek mental health treatment after being examined under Florida’s Baker Act statutes. Hovering over the new law was a certain quintessentially rhetorical question: Why, even in pistol-packing, Second Amendment-absolutist Florida, would you not keep all Baker Acters away from guns? Obviously, it needed affirming, even in the better-never-than-late state.

Knock-Knocking The Defense

However the George Zimmerman trial ends, its impact will ripple forward–from race relations and perceptions to “stand your ground” applications. But there’s one aspect sure to find its way into future law school curricula. That was defense attorney Don West’s opening statement. There are strategic “do’s” and there are strategic “don’ts.” And there are strategy-challenged “what-the-hell-were-you-thinkings?” This was one of those.

Whether it’s a court of law or an initial date, there’s only one chance to make a first impression. Thus, a major rule of courtroom thumb has to be: No knock-knock jokes. None. Ever. At best, they’re beneath the dignity of the moment. At worst, they’re counterproductive to your case.

And what were West’s first words to the jurors: “Knock. Knock. Who is there? George Zimmerman. George Zimmerman who? All right, good. You’re on the jury.”

Say what? There’s bad desk-side manner and there’s legal buffoonery verging on malpractice. In effect, West had said: “Of course, I want you to take me and the arguments I present seriously. We have, as you will see, a case with merit and credibility. But, first, let me begin with a juvenile joke that insults you for being so poorly informed on current events that you were consequently chosen to sit in judgment of my client.”

You can’t make this up. For sure, no law school instructor would even try.

Nan Rich Misses An Opportunity

Gubernatorial candidate Nan Rich* hit town last weekend. She was politely welcomed by the Tiger Bay Club of Tampa and properly covered by local media.

As still the only major declared Democratic candidate for Florida governor, she has earned that asterisk. But she has also picked up another, less-welcome one. While the former Weston legislator has spent a dozen years in Tallahassee, including as minority leader in the Senate, she still has major name-recognition problems. Not good. And it was embarrassing when she wasn’t allowed even a cameo at the recent Jefferson-Jackson fundraising gala and party love-in.

As a result of the name-game challenge, she also has fund-raising questions. Consequently, she has credibility issues. Call it the political hat trick no candidate for any office would want. Let alone one in a mega state with pricey, multiple media markets. In polls involving the usual Democratic suspects–former Gov. Charlie Crist, former CFO Alex Sink and Sen. Bill Nelson–Rich is the only one who actually trails incumbent Gov. Rick Scott. Yes, someone besides Bill McCollum still trails the country’s least popular governor.

In addressing the Tiger Bay luncheon last Friday–largely preaching to the Democratic converted–she offered hints as to why she remains traction-challenged. She comes across as informed and progressive but uninspiring at a time when her party needs someone to rally around. Her response to a (Quinnipiac) poll-related query seemed quixotic. “I’m an optimist. I was actually amazed I was only six points down (to Scott). I feel kinda good about it.”

She likely does. It could be worse. She also notes that there’s ample precedent for relatively unknown state senators becoming governor–namely, Reubin Askew, Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham. But that was them, and this is not.

The “life-long Democrat” and former president of the National Council of Jewish Women seems earnest, if scripted, and in the race for all the right reasons. Her checklist of priority rights–from public education and health care to voting and women’s reproduction–resonates with the left who are anxiously looking to replace the gubernatorial anti-Christ. But the electorate–Democrats, Independents, Republicans–also votes for a messenger, not just a message.

What Democrats desperately want is a winner. Rich is getting no traction with no one else in the race. When the battle is finally joined, it won’t get easier.

Two other points.

Rich should consider maxing out on the concept of “local control.” She characterized Scott as the “Big Brother” in Tallahassee who doesn’t respect local control across a spectrum of issues–from the environment to public schools. It’s an effective rejoinder to leading questions about being a stereotypical “top-down”/big government liberal.

Cuba As Game-changer?

Al Fox, well known as this area’s pre-eminent advocate for normalizing relations with Cuba, tried to bait Rich with a question. She should have taken the bait.

Fox wanted to know if she would entertain going to Cuba herself and maybe taking some “farmers” with her to underscore that there are deals to be made in certain sectors with the right approach. It could, implied Fox, possibly be a game-changer.

She responded that it was, indeed, time “to try a new tact” regarding Cuba and then lamely referenced the need for “dialogue”–especially the “constructive” kind–more than once. Kathy Castor, she’s not.

If you’re Nan Rich, this was a missed opportunity.

Yes, even blatant, enlightened self-interest when it comes to Cuba is still a volatile issue in parts of South Florida, but Rich wants to be governor of the entire Sunshine State. Sure, being proactive on Cuba would be an unorthodox hustings gambit, but her no-name-liberal-from-South Florida candidacy is a long shot.

So, why not show some pragmatic savvy and some political guts? Voters, the vast majority of whom are not the embargo-loving, vendetta crowd, would certainly know her name as a result.

Gun Restrictions

This qualifies as progress.

Last month the Florida Legislature passed–almost unanimously–a bill that surprised some gun rights supporters. All it needs is Gov. Rick Scott’s signature, and it becomes law.

No, it doesn’t ban, say, assault weapons or high-capacity magazines. Nor does it restrict concealed carry permits or refine “stand your ground” law. This is still Florida. But it would limit gun purchases by preventing some mentally ill people from buying them.

Current Florida law prohibits those committed involuntarily under the Baker Act, which applies to people deemed a danger to themselves or others, from buying a firearm. Under the proposed legislation, this prohibition would also apply to those who voluntarily seek mental health treatment after being examined under Florida’s Baker Act statutes.

If Gov. Scott is looking for cover, he has the blessing of Marion Hammer, NRA icon and founder of United Sportsmen of Florida. If he is looking for further justification, there’s always this: Why, even in Florida, would you not keep all Baker Acters away from guns?

But this is progress.

Jury System On Trial

Right now we don’t need more reasons to ponder the fabric and fragility of our democracy. Not exactly the best timing for the George Zimmerman jury selection to have been a news staple.

Thanks, as it were, to the wry tweets and sardonic humor of Tampa Bay Times reporter Ben Montgomery, we are again reminded that a jury of one’s peers is somewhere between a crap shoot and an oxymoron. The jury system, featuring variations on a civically-disengaged, news-challenged pool theme, was on trial before Zimmerman’s fate is decided.