Early Voting Variables

Some early/absentee voting is by necessity, some by convenience. Here’s hoping that convenience isn’t, in effect, a tradeoff for what would become irrelevant gubernatorial debates for a significant number of voters.

After the onslaught of slick, context-contorting campaign ads, voters just may, ironically, want to take advantage of the only opportunity to see the candidates unfiltered and juxtaposed. The dynamics can be revealing.

For example, answering a question–any question–with a rote, non-sequitur mantra about “Obamacare” or “jobs” plays differently in front of a statewide TV audience than it does in print largely in front of the press corps.

Frankly, the debates, as well as Democratic–notably minority and South Florida–turnout, will represent Charlie Crist’s best chance to counter Gov. Rick Scott’s deep-pocketed media ad machine. Television is not in Rick Scott’s rhetorical–or optical–wheelhouse. Conversely, Crist’s mien is media friendly. It would be too bad if too many voters didn’t look in for a final assessment in the consummate candidate comparison.

Chris Christie: Cheap-shotting For Scott

Maybe anything is better than “Bridgegate” scrutiny for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. But a close second might be sharing a spotlight, let alone a bus ride and Panhandle barbecue lunch, with Rick Scott.

Political necessity is rarely pretty.

Christie, the chairman of the Republican Governors Association, was in Florida over the weekend to lend Scott some campaign heft and inject some hustings personality. Florida, of course, weighs heavily on the Republicans’ 2016 presidential strategy, and the GOP wants the country’s uber battleground state to stay in Republican clutches.

And, Christie, of course, still has designs on a presidential bid, so Florida is important personally. Sorties to the Sunshine State are political two-fers for him. In fact, he might have been trial-running some approaches as a moderate governor from a blue state in Florida’s conservative Panhandle.

If so, he didn’t help himself with moderates.

While it seems typical partisan politics to blame Charlie Crist for all that went wrong economically in Florida as a result of America’s Great Recession, Christie ginned it up even more.

“He left the cleanup job to a real man,” snarked Christie.

That was no moderate applause line, to be sure. That was a below-the-belt cheap shot more appropriate to a sleazy whispering campaign.

While the Scott strategists won’t touch a wink-nod, Crist “manhood” slam–because it counterproductively reflects poorly on the slammers–it could abide an outsider doing it. Shame on Christie for complying with the code.

Florida is a battleground state for good reason. Most of it doesn’t play like a Bay County Sonny’s BBQ.

Sagging Pants Abets Stereotyping

Sagging pants:I don’t want to paint myself into a racist corner by coming down too hard on something like sagging pants. There are too many more important issues to deal with.

But what I am saying is this: For those so disposed to such a peer-group, niche fashion, consider not making it any easier for people not like you to define and stereotype you. And, for what it’s worth, you will no longer look asinine with your butt hanging out.

Drooping drawers are back in the news because Ocala passed a sagging-pants ban this summer and New Port Richey is considering one. The Marion County NAACP has criticized the Ocala City Council for a measure it contends will lead to the targeting of young black males.

That may be true.

Some things–attitudes, characterizations–are so embedded into our race-conscious society that respect for those of different hues remains an ongoing challenge in 21st century America. Looking like a fool gains no one’s respect. That’s not being a racist; it’s being a realist.

Morgan Video: For The Opposition

Sure, “For the reefer” is a funny riff on John Morgan’s “For The People” ad mantra. A lot funnier than “For the amendment.” Context matters.

Hearing “For the reefer” shouted by college-age imbibers at Lakeland’s Boots ‘n’ Buckles Saloon–in response to a (medical) marijuana pitch by John Morgan–was, or should have been, sobering.

Drink in hand, Morgan recently f-bombed his way through a pandering session with those seemingly much more interested in weed-for-all than mission-of-mercy. There’s compassionate, there’s humane–and there’s dumb.

Morgan was the avatar of dumb that night.

Dumb for not quitting while he was ahead after his medical marijuana-amendment debate with Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd. Dumb for then showing up to give a poor-taste pep talk at a bar. Dumb for not realizing the ubiquity of cell phone video. Dumb for giving the opposition credibility-undermining campaign manna that will be revisited time and again between now and Nov. 4. Talk about reefer madness.

Morgan has spent more than $4 million to get Amendment 2 on the November ballot. It would allow people with chronic, debilitating conditions to use marijuana if a licensed doctor prescribes it in writing. If it passes, Florida would join 23 other states and the District of Columbia in legalizing medical marijuana.

Because of Morgan, enough petition signatures were gathered. He has overseen the medical marijuana movement through its Florida Supreme Court seal of approval on amendment wording. He personifies the medical marijuana issue, which is now, thanks to that slurred, Lakeland meltdown, a double-edged sword.

I’ve seen his presentation to the non-Boots ‘n’ Buckles crowd.

It’s effective because his passion and his rationale resonates. It’s effective because for all of that $45-million Morgan & Morgan ad budget and “for the people” shtick, he can make a case–empathetic and appealing–without pandering to potheads.

He can talk about marijuana that helped relieve his dying father’s pain from esophageal cancer and how it helped his paralyzed brother. “It works,” he emphatically underscores.

He can reference hospice nurses and chemotherapy patients–not partying undergrads. And he can out-cherry pick his opponents on marijuana-related data.

But he also realizes that a 60 percent (referendum) threshold is a formidable challenge. He also knows his high profile and deep pockets can be a difference-maker in motivating a chronically lazy, if not clueless, electorate that stays away in droves in non-presidential elections. So if younger voters turn out in bigger numbers than normal because they’re enamored of marijuana use, however it’s legally couched, well, that’s greater-good politics.

But he shouldn’t dismiss common sense and compassion as unappealing approaches to younger voters. They’re on campus–not a societal bubble. They have families. They’re not scientific debunkers and outliers.

Sure, winking and nodding can be part of the game–but not f-bomb pandering to the most literal of “grass roots” voter niches.

Candidly, Morgan looks like he should be retaining counsel for the stretch run. Ironically, Charlie Crist would be an effective mouthpiece were he not otherwise occupied.

FSU’s Search For A President And Credibility

Florida State University cannot be faulted for considering Sen. John Thrasher in its presidential search. It can, however, be faulted for making him the early front runner and now one of four finalists. And it would certainly be a major fault line through its credibility if it ultimately were to make him president.

While the majority of top jobs in academia still go to career academics, they have been increasingly going to non-traditional academics. There’s precedent in this state. Former FSU president “T.K.” Wetherell and the University of Miami’s Donna Shalala, while achieving high visibility in the political arena, both had prior higher ed experience.

Wetherell, the former Speaker of the Florida House, had been president of Tallahassee Community College. Shalala, the former HHS secretary under President Bill Clinton, once served as the chancellor of the University of Wisconsin. They both had Rolodexes to die for, but also had relevant educational experiences. Call it the best of both worlds.

And let’s not forget Betty Castor, USF president during the 1990s, who helped USF turn a much-needed influence corner in Tallahassee. She knew her way around the corridors of power, to be sure, but had also been the state’s commissioner of education. She was no higher ed rookie.

Thrasher, a former lobbyist, current chairman of Rick Scott’s re-election committee and erstwhile House Speaker who dismantled the Florida Board of Regents to expedite the orchestration of FSU’s medical school, represents all that we loathe about Tallahassee. This would be political payback–plus whoring out to a fund-raising maven.

John Thrasher is not T.K. Wetherell, Donna Shalala, Betty Castor–or Frank Brogan (FAU). Some things ought not to be for sale. Especially if the next governor is not Rick Scott.

Turn-Offs, Turnout Key To Governor’s Race

Some conversations are more memorable than others.

I periodically reflect back on one I had with former Mayor Dick Greco last October. The newly-minted octogenarian was as feisty and animated as ever in surveying the political scene. Two topics were dominant: the 2014 gubernatorial race and voter apathy.

A year later, they resonate even more. No, make that haunt.

“I’m only making one prediction,” said Greco. “It will be the nastiest campaign you’ve ever seen. It will be ugly.”

I wish he hadn’t been so prescient. In fact, I’d settle for ugly right now.

If obscene amounts of money, ever-ratcheting polarization and visceral candidate dislikes for each other are any indication, the gubernatorial slog between now and Nov. 4 will get ever nastier. The character-assassinating commercials will make us nostalgic for the days when pols were mainly glib and self-serving.

Jeb Bush vs. Buddy MacKay. Jeb Bush vs. Bill McBride. Charlie Crist vs. Jim Davis. Those were the days, my friend. The gloves came off, to be sure, but brass knuckles weren’t underneath. It was  pre-Citizens United,  pre-Tea Party and pre-Obama Administration, the political cocktail from hell that now defines and polarizes us.

But there was a constant, besides Republican gubernatorial winners. Less than half of Florida’s Democratic and Republican voters turned out, many only after considerable coaxing.

“People are not as involved,” lamented Greco. “And they use every excuse in the book. I can still remember my 97-year-old mom filling out her absentee ballot because she had never missed an election.”

What a quaint concept: voting as a right and a responsibility. And a given.

But this is not Evelyn Greco’s electorate. Hasn’t been for a while.

In 2002 and 2006, for example, 40 percent of Dems turned out to vote for McBride and Davis, respectively. The Republicans, behind Bush and Crist, turned out 46 and 45 percent, respectively. In 2010, 38 percent were turned on enough to turn out for Alex Sink, while 46 percent of Republicans showed up for Rick Scott.

Deplorable numbers for both sides, but advantage enough to matter for Republicans. And if that pattern repeats, especially in the Democratic counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade, Scott wins. And keep in mind that the recent primaries drew a statewide turnout of 17.57 percent.

We hear the arguments that negative campaigning continues to turn off voters. Plus, there’s the rationale that numbers are just never impressive in non-presidential years. Moreover, neither Crist nor Scott are considered public service avatars. And, who knows, maybe Jennifer Carroll’s (“I was treated like an unwanted stepchild”) book will tamp down interest even further.

Excuses, we have plenty. Informed, participant voters, who don’t just cherry-pick partisan sources and can see through blatant distortions and misrepresentations, not so much.

Democracy, arguably, cannot be a non-participatory system. Or one confined to activists and zealots. Ultimately, a price is paid. Arguably, we’re seeing manifest signs of that right now in the oft-putting mano a mano between Crist, an ideological chameleon, and Scott, an ideologue in election-year makeover mode.

For some reason, a quote of Congressman John Anderson, the 1980 independent presidential candidate, comes to mind. During a debate with President Jimmy Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan, he referred to himself as the alternative to the establishment candidates, whom he characterized as the “evil of two lessers.”

It was a blindsiding zinger said for effect, and the media, of course, had fun with it.

Now it wouldn’t be funny. It would be true.

Campaign Gaffe

We now know that a Rick Scott, Spanish-language endorsement by MD Food Market owner Maikel Duarte-Torres of Tampa was embarrassing. Turns out that the owner of the West Hillsborough Avenue market, a Cuban refugee, was convicted of human smuggling a few years back. Ouch.

Earlier this year Duarte-Torres was quoted in Granma, the official news agency of the Cuban Communist Party. Apparently he was soliciting advice on investing in cattle ranching or fishing boats. He included some Havana-friendly rhetoric: “…long live the revolution … long live victory always.” Caramba.

Barristers Count

This just in: We have too many lawyers. Anyone else see that coming?

Since 2000, the number of licensed attorneys in Florida has ratcheted from 61,000 to 96,000. And no one, arguably, thought we were under-lawyered in 2000.

Used to be that if students earned an in-state law degree, it was probably from FSU, UF, Miami or Stetson. Now it might be from Ave Maria in Naples, Florida Coastal in Jacksonville or–by next year–Thomas M. Cooley in Riverview. There are currently a dozen accredited law schools in the Sunshine State.

And, word is, not enough work for the 3,000 grads churned out annually. Finally.

A recent Florida Bar Association survey asked members what the most serious problem facing the legal profession was. The answers were illustrative. Nearly half the respondents said “too many attorneys.” Others cited “difficult economic times.” Some decried “poor public perception.” None, presumably, noted “too litigious a society.”

Gubernatorial Race: Charley’s Angles

We all know that running mates don’t win elections for those who top a ticket. Bobby Brantley didn’t carry the gubernatorial day for Bob Martinez any more than Jeff Kottkamp and Jennifer Carroll did for Charlie Crist and Rick Scott, respectively. Rod Smith couldn’t help the fumbling Alex Sink.

But campaigns can never totally discount a scenario that just maybe, given the right demographics and geographics, the second slot can be a difference maker in a close-call election. Indications are this fall’s likely match-up between former Gov. Charlie Crist and current Gov. Rick Scott will be just that.

Such that Democratic turnout–for a chameleon candidate who has become the anti-Scott–will be the critical factor.

And the key area will be South Florida, home of the largest concentration of Florida’s Democrats–but the Achilles Heel of recent Democratic gubernatorial nominees, especially Sink, for whom the South Florida turnout was beyond disappointing. Thus, it makes eminent sense that Crist has chosen Annette Taddeo-Goldstein, working-mom businesswoman, well-regarded chairwoman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and former host of a CNN Latino show called Taddeo2day, as his running mate.

Naming a liberal, Hispanic woman–of Colombian descent–who’s a serious player in South Florida Democratic politics, is a pragmatically sound move. Even if Nan Rich thinks it’s insultingly presumptuous. Even if Taddeo-Goldstein has never held elective office.

Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic in Florida, and Hispanic women now outnumber Hispanic men among Florida voters. It’s no surprise that Taddeo-Goldstein will campaign as Taddeo solamente.

Approaching crunch time, Crist couldn’t afford to ignore any possible turnout-booster in Democrat-rich South Florida.

Maybe ex-Sen. Dan Gelber, who would be this state’s attorney general if judgment and character had gotten their due in 2010–would have been the superior running mate. He’d likely be better prepared to succeed an incapacitated governor if the need ever arose.

But first, of course, the ticket has to get elected. The Democratic base needs stoking. And identity politics in places such as Hispanic-driven South Florida could be decisive in a statistical toss-up election.

Clearwater Image

Media stories about Clearwater Beach crime too easily conflate criminal incidents. A recent Tampa Bay Times headline read: “More Partiers, More Problems For Clearwater.”

Yes, reported crimes are up–along with a hefty increase in the number of visitors. In fact, nearly 1 million out-of-towners now come calling annually.

To insiders, however, the issue is not so much about “partiers.” They come with the territory. It’s more drunks, more fights and more morning-after hook-up and tattoo remorse. That’s why police patrols have been noticeably beefed up.

Everyone acknowledges that the quieter days of mom-and-pop motel ambience are gone. What’s worrisome to city officials is the uptick in incidents involving guns.

Those aren’t the “partiers” referenced in headlines. Those are the thugs who didn’t come for spring break hijinks or some vintage gulf-front R&R. That’s the real concern, the ones who could undermine “partier” tourism.