When the subject is Cuba, and you live in Florida and you care what happens next, there is no middle ground. Zero-sum mentalities prevail.
Still a dictatorship? Then keep the embargo.
A Cold War-relic policy that demonstrably hasn’t worked and is counterproductive–from economics to geopolitics–in so many ways? How unconscionably dumb.
People lost their country to a dictatorship. Lives, property and homeland roots confiscated. Imagine walking in those hauntingly emotional shoes? We get it.
But imagine turning more than a half century of bitter memories and feuding into foreign policy? A vendetta agenda can’t be the basis for diplomatic, humanitarian, trade, security, immigration and environmental policies. Who would get that?
There’s plenty of blame to go around–regardless of who started it. Or who used to be a Batistiano. Or who planned the invasion of a certain bay. Or who allowed doomsday-scenario nukes. Or who consorted with the mob over assassination hits. Or who orchestrated a massive, deceitful boatlift. Or who still believes in heavy-handed, undemocratic government with a weirdly hybrid, hypocritical economy.
We know that the U.S. has allies and trade partners far less democratic than Cuba: Think Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, for openers. The former is ground zero for radical Wahhabism, has subsidized terrorism and has uncomfortable ties to 9/11. The latter, of course, is where more than 50,000 Americans died and where societal fault lines were forged throughout the country.
But we moved on. It wasn’t personal enough–just tragic and horrific.
We also know that no state benefits more than Florida from Cuban-American detente. And we know that no city–think Port Tampa Bay, for openers–benefits more from normalized relations than Tampa, the historical soul mate of Havana.
But Cuba is also its own worst enemy. The U.S. may be Uncle Scapegoat, but the Cuban government also weaves its own basket case. When you find yourself on the same self-inflicted, economic-dysfunction short list with Venezuela and North Korea, you’ve got a big problem.
For all the high-profile rapprochement with the U.S. and attendant interest–the reality is still dueling currencies, slow growth, bureaucratic hell, import overdependence, dissent intolerance, inadequate agricultural production, Internet deficiencies, credit card roulette and selective marketplace dynamics that reward Hotel Nacional bartenders more than brain surgeons. Egalitarian poverty is no less poor. The populace no less hungry.
When President Barack Obama visited last month, the Cuban government seemingly didn’t care that the world watched while the “Ladies in White” demonstrators were roughed up. It didn’t dawn on them that President Raul Castro would look like a “Saturday Night Live” parody for his debut press-conference performance. You care enough to put on a show to bring international exposure and encourage tourism and investment, and then allow Banana Republic images?
And then there’s this. As of this writing, Cuba still has a law prohibiting Cuban-born nationals from returning by sea. But it’s okay for them to fly in. Huh?
Obviously, Carnival Corp., which has cruise-liner plans to bring passengers–including some Cuban-born Americans–to the island, has been less than pleased by this inexplicable incongruity. It’s not about to be a flagship for sovereign discrimination. Obviously, Cuba still doesn’t have its act together, and some things you can’t blame on Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Díaz-Balart and Marco Rubio.
One final point. We have friends in Cuba who are periodically in touch. One mentioned a likely Cuba-America scenario about 15 years ago. He said that ultimately it would take the “biological solution” to normalize everything meaningful between the countries, including the end of the embargo, which needs Congressional approval. That literal solution would be the deaths of the Castro brothers. Too much had happened for that not to be the final tipping point.
I didn’t disagree then–or now–even if the next generation of Cuban leaders, including 84-year-old Raúl Castro’s heir apparent, First Vice President Miguel Díaz-Canel, is not exactly cut from democratic, capitalistic cloth.
But absent a dictatorial Castro presence, final, face-saving agreements can be reached by the exile generation as well as pandering–and intimidated–politicians.