Timing, as we well know, is everything.
Had Jeb Bush, for example, defeated Lawton Chiles in 1994, he–“the smart sibling”–would arguably have been the second President Bush. But that was then, and this is now.
“Jeb!”,as we’ve been seeing for the last fortnight,is no longer the non-candidate with the 9-figure Super PAC. He’s in early primary states and on late night comedy shows.
He’s downplaying the candidate chops of competing senators and playing up his own CEO bona fides as a former governor. And not just being the former chief executive of the nation’s biggest swing state, but being a very successful one when it comes to the economy and job creation.
It’s a major bragging point in an upcoming election where the economy, jobs and wages will likely be determinative.
Only one caveat. That Sunshine State economic track record–the one that trumps the problematic likes of FCATs, Terri Schiavo and a “Stand Your Ground” signature–must be seen in context. Timing again.
If you revered Bill Clinton’s national economy, then you also own the dot-com bubble protagonist. If you relished Jeb Bush’s Florida economy, then you also need to concede the housing-bubble momentum that impacted this state far more than most–and peaked in Bush’s last year in office.
To be precise, Florida averaged more than 4 percent annual growth under Bush, while it was 3 percent nationally. In the next four, post-Bush years, the U.S. averaged 0.3 percent growth as housing prices plunged and the recession took hold. Florida then averaged a “growth” rate of minus 2.4 percent. The double-edged housing sword cuts both ways.
Jeb was a prudent steward and intellectually rigorous, but he was also the beneficiary of a roller-coaster housing market.
Timing, as noted, matters–as we’ll be hearing during the presidential campaign.