Darryl Paulson, the amiable, Republican-registered, USF St. Pete political science professor emeritus, calls it the “6-Year Itch.” It’s the mid-point of the second term of a re-elected president. Change has inevitably occurred. He outlined some of the Obama Administration dynamics and implications for the 2014– and 2016– elections to a Tiger Bay Club of Tampa audience last Friday.
With few exceptions, the incumbent Party loses House and Senate seats in such off-year elections. In general, turn-out drops–roughly from 60 percent to 40 percent–and a fickle electorate grows tired and wants a change. Specific to the Obama Administration, pointed out Paulson: “The Affordable Care Act is going down in public opinion polls, and independent voters are now trending Republican.” And there’s this: “Republicans are more enthused.”
But it’s not as if the GOP is caveat free, noted Paulson. Hardly. “Most Americans,” he underscored, “don’t find favor with Republican stands on guns, same-sex marriage, immigration and government shutdowns.”
Paulson said the “odds are better than even” that the Republicans will control the next Congress with pick-ups in both Houses. One more-than-conceivable result: Republicans could “paralyze the president’s agenda. The Democrats may want the filibuster rule back.”
As to Obama-successor scenarios, the Republicans have problematic demographics and in-house issues in 2016, reminded Paulson. The Party, for example, has declining appeal to younger, single female and non-white voters. (“Mit Romney got 60 percent of the white vote and still lost by 4 percent. … Women are 53 percent of the national electorate and 55 percent of the Florida electorate.”) There’s also the house-divided dynamic with four major splits, said Paulson: Tea Party, establishment conservatives, social conservatives and neo-conservatives (who are much more assertive on foreign policy and dislike Rand Paul).
He puts Jeb Bush and Rand Paul in the “first tier” of Republican presidential candidates right now. He doesn’t see Paul expanding beyond an insufficient Libertarian base. He also noted: “It’s a real problem that there’s not a single woman on the (GOP) list.”
It is, of course, Hillary Clinton’s to lose on the Democratic side, acknowledged Paulson. “But if not Hillary, then Elizabeth Warren”–an aside that drew the Democratic-leaning gathering’s most upbeat, animated response. “Whoever it is,” stressed Paulson, “Republicans will have their problems.”
Some additional Paulson outtakes:
* President Obama’s “biggest failure”: “He’s done very little to curry the support of those who he might win over.”
* “No such thing as too much free speech. Money doesn’t guarantee elections.”
* Alex Sink: “A poor, extremely cautious candidate. Voters never got to know who the real Sink was.”
* The Democrats are now in a “pickle” over whom to pick to go against Rep. David Jolly. “Most likely” is St. Petersburg attorney Jessica Urlich, who lost to the late C.W. Bill Young in 2012. “But I’m not sure she wants to after having been kicked to the curb” by the Democrat establishment in favor of Sink.
* “As of today, Rick Scott has a better than even chance of winning. Personally, I’ll put my nickel on Scott.”
* Private-sector involvement in K-12 education: “Competition makes everyone better.”
* “The dumbest thing they (Republicans) ever did: attempt to intimidate minorities (over voting rights). Unconscionable.”
* “Most independent voters are ‘leaners.’ Ask a follow-up questions and they lean (to a Party).”
* Marijuana issue as a ballot magnet to younger voters: “A lot less impact than people figure. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go in, look for the marijuana issue, then leave and go home and smoke a joint.”