Iran just elected a moderate president, the cleric Hasan Rowhani, 64, who won 50.7 percent of the vote in a six-way race. “I thank God that once again rationality and moderation has shined on Iran,” declared Rowhani on state TV. “This is the victory of wisdom, a victory of moderation and a victory of commitment over extremism.” On cue, the West breathed a sigh of geopolitical relief and began waxing optimistic.
A key caveat: All six candidates were handpicked by Iran’s religious leadership. And “moderate” is a quintessentially relative term in America these days, let alone Iran. By way of analogy, Rick Perry–in the context of Ted Cruz–is a Texas moderate.
More importantly, Iran’s new president yields–not wields–power in all things that matter–from nuclear policies and the armed forces to social restrictions and the electronic media–to the Islamic Republic’s ultimate authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, unsubtly known as the “supreme leader.” Khamenei works well with the repressive Revolutionary Guards and directly appoints the uber powerful Guardian Council, which, among other responsibilities, determines who’s actually eligible to run for president. The supreme leader seemingly answers only to the Prophet Muhammad. He’s certainly above elections.
I recall in a 1999 visit to Iran what the atmosphere was like when the “reformist” moderate Mohammad Khatami, a former minister of culture who was fluent in English and German, was president. He was personally popular, especially with the younger generation and anyone perceiving a need for “reform.” But he had to continuously do a high-wire act over the political mosh pit of religious hard liners and pragmatic reformers. It was fraying Iranian tempers and fueling frustration even then, just two years into his moderating presidency.
I talked with a female University of Tehran student–majoring in architecture–on what it was like living in Khatami’s Iran. In short, increasingly exasperating, she said. As if to underscore that reality, our conversation was not unnoted–or unmonitored–by others. This was more than manifested when the student would stop in mid-sentence and do a conversational 180 and abruptly reference the ruins of Persepolis or a classmate’s birthday. In between furtive glances, she said: “I do not like the veil, especially in the summer. But older women don’t seem to mind it so much.”
On an even touchier subject:
“President Khatami is a good man, but a lot of students want more change, more freedom,” said the 18-year-old. “There is too much, how do you say, regimentation. You can’t think for yourself … I’m sorry, that is the third time I have been warned to leave this subject. You speak, please.”
Khatami’s eight-year tenure, which ended in 2005 and was rife with clashes with political hardliners and conservative Islamists, culminated in disillusionment by his supporters. Many observers–not just followers–believed he wanted to “democratize” the Islamic Republic. True believers hoped he would push to open up the economy and put the morality police on notice. He didn’t come close.
Now there’s the “diplomat sheik” Rowhani, certainly an image upgrade over his predecessor, the peevish Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but arguably less “moderate” than Khatami. And the position still comes with built-in governors on dealing with the West over the usual issues.
But at least there is this. No one is protesting that the election was rigged this time.