Just when you thought you’d heard enough of the election post-mortems, you realize you still haven’t heard it all. That’s after a question-and-answer session with Florida’s most quoted political scientist, Susan MacManus of USF. The Distinguished Professor and author held court the other day at the Tiger Bay Club of Tampa luncheon. Some MacManus outtakes:
* “Cable TV debates hurt GOP candidates” by providing a mother lode of material to the Obama campaign. Likely upshot: “TV debates in primary states will be minimized.”
* Fallout from Superstorm Sandy: “It helped Obama look presidential. And I think Republicans will lose (New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie) as a presidential candidate.”
* The Florida turnout, 71 percent, was down about 4 percent from 2008. It wasn’t so much a matter of suppression, noted MacManus, as it was “the negativity of campaigns and ad saturation.” In effect, some voters responded with: “Neither one.”
* Role of social media: “Not as much as people thought. Party and candidate intrusion (ad drops, contribution requests) alienated a number of younger voters.”
* Use of messengers, especially to younger voters: “Messengers can be as important as the message. The Democrats sent Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama to key states. For the Republicans, where were the Nikki Haleys and the Susana Martinezes? It wasn’t helpful to send Newt Gingrich, although he’s smart, out there.”
* Democrats’ Hispanic approach: Included “effective use of Spanish language cable networks (Telemundo, Univision) with the message: ‘Let’s register and vote.'”
* “Generational replacement.” That’s what’s occurring with the Cuban vote in Florida. As a result, it’s no longer “solidly Republican.”
* “Democrats always assumed there would be late deciders, often younger, female voters.”
* Democrats were much less concerned with yard signs and bumper stickers than with developing an “incredible data base.” Door-knocking was more effective than calling.
* So-called fiscal cliff: “Expect a band aid on a deep gash.”