Two weeks ago we all read those “War Ends” headlines–and, chances are, with mixed emotions. A sigh of relief for those Americans stationed in Iraq and for those otherwise facing deployment there. But also a somber realization of what more than eight and half years has wrought: 4,487 Americans dead; 32,226 wounded; 110,000 Iraqi civilians killed; and nearly $1 trillion spent by U.S. taxpayers.
As opposed to the end of World War II, there were no V-I Day headlines. No iconic kisses in Times Square. That’s because victory wasn’t being declared — just an official end to the U.S. mission being acknowledged. Taps would be appropriate.
When Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta marked the occasion with a speech, he did so in a fortified, concrete courtyard at the Bagdad Airport–with helicopters hovering above. And then he flew home, leaving behind a political quagmire where al-Qaida militants are still carrying out devastating attacks against civilians. Where the ties between the ambitious Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Iran are ever tightening. Where an arrest warrant is out on the Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, for allegedly ordering attacks against government officials.
And how about the perspective provided by Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, the departing U.S. commander in Iraq, after the airport ceremony was over. “From a standpoint of being able to defend against an external threat, they have very limited to little capability, quite frankly,” he soberly noted.
Surely, this is nobody’s idea of “Mission Accomplished.” Armies of occupation–especially de facto ones–don’t celebrate.
Two points.
First, lessons of Vietnam continue to go unlearned. One is that the U.S., for all of its military might and sophistication, is ill-equipped to fight insurgents–unless, of course, you want to go the “Bombs Away” Curtis LeMay route. It’s the nature of insurgencies fighting on their own turf against adversaries better suited to World War II enemies. Remember, we did pretty good ourselves when we were the insurgents.
Second, for all of our efforts to cobble together sects and tribes into a functioning country with some semblance of democratic rule, it’s likely a long shot. The parallels with Yugoslavia are too stark. Those with historic enmities, especially those rooted in religion, are best held together by, frankly, a strong ruler–aka a dictator. Post-Marshal Tito Yugoslavia has resulted in Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro.
Among those who have a gut feeling that post-American intervention in Iraq will result in separation into individual entities: Vice President Joe Biden. For all of his media-manna gaffes, the man knows foreign policy. In fact, he arguably knows it better than anyone else in the Obama Administration. As a presidential candidate in 2008, he often spoke of the ultimate “reality” that would be post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. It was an Iraq that would no longer be a single sovereign entity.
The bet here is that he will be proven, alas, prescient. Kurdistan is already semi-autonomous. It’s hardly a leap to envision Shiitestan and Sunnistan whether they all agree on oil-revenue distribution or not.
By whatever name(s), Mes O’ Potamia will be the reality–at the cost of nearly 37,000 killed and wounded Americans.