When it comes to Donald Trump’s share of the electorate, the percentage has been too readily and routinely overstated. A couple of recent examples. The other day Fred Hiatt, the editorial page editor of the Washington Post, referenced the “46 percent of the electorate who rallied to Trump’s side in order to ‘drain the swamp’ of Washington elitism … .” Recently pollster G. Terry Madonna noted that “(Trump’s) got about 40 percent of the electorate that is hanging in with him, regardless of what he has said and done.” And others, too numerous to name.
Frankly, I think Trump would be lucky to have a solid support base much above minimal double digits.
Keep in mind, that nearly half the electorate didn’t vote last November. Ascribing a big chunk of that to ardent Trump fans would be a huge, untenable reach. Of the electorate who voted, a plurality, as we know, favored Hillary Clinton. And the Greens and Libertarians picked up some votes. Give Trump roughly half of a half. That would be a quarter, give or take a Duck Dynasty member or two.
Of that, arguably, many were more Hillary haters than Trump zealots. And many more held their noses to keep voting Republican.
Trump has a fan base–the one he still revisits periodically for ego-boosting, post-campaign rallies when the White House routine of being presidential becomes unbearable. But its noise level, optics and dress-code caps make it seem and sound like a lot more.