It’s not hard to make the case that the primary/caucus system that has Iowa and New Hampshire leading off is less than ideal. Population-challenged, demographically-skewed states shouldn’t be allowed to matter that much to a globally-important, momentum-sensitive process.
But Florida’s winner-take-all-99-delegates Republican primary on Tuesday actually comes at an unexpectedly pivotal point. Rather than ginning up early momentum, Florida could be a Trump card for one candidate and a Joker for another. Scenarios for a brokered convention could be emboldened or ended.
Yes, Florida voting in mid-March matters–more than we had expected.