One of the key political queries for the 2012 presidential race is whether President Barack Obama can rally the same grass roots enthusiasm and activism as last time. Especially among minority and more youthful demographics.
The answer would appear obvious: no.
For openers, there is no way to replicate a first-impression experience. Especially when it’s the political version of a harmonic convergence: The charismatic, articulate “Yes We Can” African-American making American history while sending a global message that the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld era is emphatically over. And that America can be kinder and gentler as well as smarter and safer. Moreover, perhaps a color-blind society might just be achievable–and not wishful grist for the utopia mill.
But campaigning is one thing, governing another. Especially governing during an imploding Great Recession that won’t quite quit. Then add the partisan-issues-from-hell tandem of health care reform and a budget-deficit fix.
Plus the usual missteps of any administration–remember high-profile cabinet appointees Tom Daschle and Bill Richardson? And we’ve barely noted Joe Biden’s periodic gaffe-a-thons or Tim Geithner’s gravitas learning curve. It all reflects on the president. It’s called being the guy in charge; it comes with the job.
A graying, 50ish Obama, the embattled incumbent, is not just a more experienced version of the refreshingly energizing Obama, the charismatic “Keep Hope Alive” candidate. Not after four years of managed expectations about an economy that is stuck in nominal recovery. Not after four years of compromise with a dysfunctional, compromised legislative branch.
No, there’s no way Obama regains the magic–borne of a perfect political storm and historic candidacy–from 2008.
Unless.
Unless the Republican Party nominates an unelectable candidate–with zero appeal to independents. And then the GOP follows its ideology-first/country-second Tea Partiers over a cliff and scares enough Americans who both pay attention and vote.
Then, of course, Obama is re-elected.