After that live televised forum last week–and two subsequent newspaper endorsements–the mayor’s race is clearly in its homestretch. And it’s time for a conventional wisdom, which is often more conventional than wise, update.
To recap: The early betting had Dick Greco, the likeable, four-time mayor immortalized with his own statue, as the candidate to beat. It was his to lose. But because there were four other qualified candidates with name recognition and track records of service, it was considered unlikely that any candidate, even Greco, could win more than 50 percent on March 1.
So, Greco and who else in the runoff? Early favorites were the deep-rooted, feisty Rose Ferlita and the well-packaged, issue-conversant Bob Buckhorn. In that order. Then came Ed Turanchik, best known for unrealized, visionary projects, and the Rev. Tom Scott, recognized as a consensus builder on both the Hillsborough County Commission and the Tampa City Council, which he currently chairs. To no one’s surprise, that’s the same order in the fund-raising race.
For a while, the focus was on signs. Most notably, on Greco’s raised-palm, “Give me five” eye-catcher, a favorite of the media and a target of partisan jokesters. Only problem: Does a candidate with the gold standard of name recognition really need an attention-drawing gimmick? Sure, the idea was Greco’s–and not the product of consultant-speak–but didn’t “Give me five” (as in a fifth term) sound, well, more presumptuous than cute?
Then there was the usual array of forums featuring predictable answers to predictable questions and the requisite, sound-bite-per-candidate reported in the next day’s print media. Everybody needed to be a fiscal conservative on budgets as well as the city’s recruiter-in-chief for the jobs of the future. Nobody extolled the merits of call centers. Everybody loved USF. Everybody was for modern mass transit. Everybody wanted to pitch the world when the GOP convention comes here in 2012.
Which brings us to the last fortnight.
The televised forum at Blake High School made an impression. While partisans will always see what they want to see, the case can be made that for many of those scoring at home there was a winner, Buckhorn, and there was a loser, Greco. The former looked and sounded mayoral. Such political formats are right in his rhetorical wheelhouse. The latter couldn’t mount a charm offensive. Even aside from that “panty raid” gaffe, he looked at times bored, even dismissive. Unfortunate, because he isn’t. That’s not Dick Greco. But it periodically came across that way.
Greco also violated the cardinal rule of all candidate favorites going into a major debate: Play it safe and don’t screw up. He screwed up. As a result, he got off message and had to take the following days to apologize and explain and re-explain himself–with the focus necessarily not on what he would do as mayor.
As for the rest, probably Turanchik, Ferlita and Scott in that order. Turanchik flashed some details, Ferlita disdained specifics and Rev. Scott seemed surprisingly bureaucratic and charisma-challenged.
Then last Sunday, the two metro dailies made public their candidates of choice. The St. Petersburg Times “recommended” Buckhorn for mayor, and the Tampa Tribune “endorsed” Turanchik for mayor. Several months ago, that Trib endorsement would have seemed the longest of shots.
The Buckhorn and Turanchik campaigns are obviously buoyed. Look for both candidates to be more aggressive. The Greco camp has to be concerned, even if the race is still considered his to lose.
But there’s also this: Newspaper readership has been steadily declining. Fewer voters rely on editorial page recommendations and endorsements. Sure, it matters, but not like it used to. Recall how Rick Scott blew off all those editorial boards and still managed to win–ok, buy–the gubernatorial election.
Now look for more TV ads. They’re relatively expensive, but that’s what campaigns hold back money for. The opportunity to address voters without media filters. A concise message, an energetic, can-do mien, a symbolic back drop. Some are better at it than others.
And then there’s this too: Last time Tampa elected a mayor, the voters stayed away in droves. Well, 84 percent of them. So turnout matters, including everybody’s “base.” Especially when all the candidates still seem to be within the margin of error.
And don’t forget: Runoff dynamics are different. The lead vote-getter from the first go-round is not necessarily a prohibitive favorite. Especially if non-runoff candidates’ supporters turn out to coalesce around an alternative.
Stay tuned. This will only get closer.