This time next year, we could be gearing up to experience the Florida presidential primary. And all its possible political ramifications. Or not.
Recall the previous January primary–in 2008. Florida had gone against party rules and moved its primary up to assure being a key early player–along with the Iowa caucus and primaries in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. It was particularly disruptive for Democrats and led to a boycott of sorts of the Sunshine State by Democratic candidates. Remember the nuanced differences between “campaigning” and “fundraising”? It also led to demoralizing uncertainties about delegate seating at the conventions.
Nobody, notably the non-incumbent Republicans who will hold their 2012 convention right here in Tampa, wants a repeat of those frustrating scenarios. Especially since the GOP has stiffened its penalties for unsanctioned move-ups. Florida’s date change is still unsanctioned.
As a result, it’s increasingly looking like Florida’s GOP-dominated legislature just might roll back the January date when they meet in session in March and April. A possible alternative: an even earlier, GOP presidential debate and accompanying (non-binding) straw poll–labeled Presidency V. In fact, that could come late this year–before Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina officially kick off the traditional primary season in early ’12.
For Florida, the political bottom line is still the same: We are a demographic microcosm of the United States. We are also a huge, must-win swing state for any presidential candidate. As Sen. Marco Rubio recently acknowledged, “If a Republican can’t win Florida, they can’t win the presidency.” Indeed. We are that critical.
This much is a given: Florida, an electoral heavyweight, will be determinative in electing the next president. Therefore, it makes no sense not to be instrumental in selecting the nominees. While it seems prudent to avoid delegate penalties–and collateral morale damage to grass roots activists–it does make eminent sense to go forward with Presidency V, so called because it would actually be the fifth in a series that dates back to the 1980s. They were serious factors in creating early momentum for former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. No reason that a current version, including a nationally televised candidates’ debate, couldn’t prove as catalytic.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, nor the importance of Florida more manifest.