Reflecting back on the 2008 presidential campaign, USF’s well-regarded, media-savvy political scientist Susan MacManus mused that the pundits were dead-on about a couple of things. Indeed, Florida was critical, the I-4 corridor was determinative and Hillsborough proved to be “THE bellwether” county in Florida. And, yes, a way ultimately was found for the Florida democratic delegation to be seated, to be accorded a vote and to rate prime-time seating at the national convention in Denver.
But on balance the pundit class was often prescience-challenged, the Distinguished University Professor of Public Administration and Political Science told a luncheon audience at last Friday’s Tiger Bay Club of Tampa luncheon. An important part of it was about the candidacy of Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Clinton was a “shoo-in,” went the conventional wisdom, reminded MacManus. Obviously, it proved more conventional than wise. Her campaign, recalled the USF professor, was undone in part by the political “calendar,” which had Florida and Michigan not waiting for its allotted time slots. The pundits didn’t realize how critical this would turn out to be.
“Florida going early probably cost Hillary the presidency,” assessed MacManus. Clinton would have won Florida “big,” she underscored, and “won Super Tuesday.”
Pundits also missed the impact of caucuses. “That string of (12) caucus losses really cost Hillary,” noted MacManus. “Caucuses are not fair” to certain demographics, she pointed out, notably “the old, the infirm, shift workers, single parents, the military.”
And pundits didn’t foresee the ironic dichotomy of sexism and women as unprecedented, prime time players.
MacManus said media coverage was “very discriminatory” to both Clinton and Republican vice presidential nominee, Gov. Sarah Palin. She specifically cited some “cleavage” references about Clinton and an especially “egregious” photo angle of Palin. “Very disturbing.”
And yet, the role of women, noted MacManus, had never mattered more. From candidates Clinton and Palin to high-profile media members – such as Katie Couric, Campbell Brown, Rachel Maddow and Greta Van Susteren – to entertainers such as Tina Fey, Oprah Winfrey and the women of “The View.”
“‘The View’ was drawing 4 million viewers the week of the election and 6 million the day after,” said MacManus. “And (had) much more impact on young and female voters.”
As for Fey’s “Saturday Night Live” parody send-ups of Palin, MacManus thought them highly detrimental to the Palin candidacy. “Psychologists say impersonators have a big impact when the person is not well known,” explained MacManus. “In a heartbeat, she was destroyed.”
Other mis-reads by the media:
*The GOP presidential nominee would be either Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney.
*The war in Iraq was the only issue that really mattered. (“Not $4 gas, the economic meltdown or Wall Street.”)
*The “Bradley Effect” (white voters misleading pollsters about voting for a black candidate) would be a factor.
*South Florida Hispanics wouldn’t vote for a black candidate. (“The economy meant more than ideology.”)
*Debates, especially those involving more than two candidates, wouldn’t really engage the public.
*The media wouldn’t be that ideologically segmented.
*Negative ads work. Period. (“Now being called more into question.”)
MacManus Outtakes
*Why we watch the pundits – even though so many can be so wrong: “People like to see people disagree. Agreement doesn’t make for good television.”
*Demographically-skewed popularity of the “Daily Show” and the “Colbert Report”: “They (according to an AP study on media habits of the young) bore quickly. Humor, cynicism and sarcasm work. And they won’t read a newspaper (as opposed to a quick-read tab)…”
*Media implications of above: “Now there are more registered voters under 35 than over 65.”
*How Barack Obama maintained the attention of the youth vote: “Keeping young people engaged. A daily e-mail by name. Reinforcing (the message that) ‘You’re part of the change.’ That moved them.”
*The Electoral College. “Every four years the winning party is satisfied, and the loser isn’t. I don’t expect a change in my life time.”